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Managing Reinvestment Risk in Client Portfolios

Why It Matters:

  • When policy rates are cut, GIC and HISA yields that were attractive during the rate hike cycle, begin to decline as well.
  • Holding onto low-yield investments can result in lower distributions and missed opportunities for portfolio growth.
  • Real estate, infrastructure and dividend growth stocks can offer rising and tax-efficient income as interest rates fall.

What is reinvestment risk?

For several years investors have enjoyed 5% yields from GICs, short-term bonds, and high interest savings accounts. However, with central banks cutting rates and global growth slowing, the entire yield curve is shifting down as rates decline.

The time is now to allocate capital into assets and asset classes that will benefit from falling interest rates. Delaying risks investing later at higher multiples, lower yields and lower total returns.

The benefits of acting early

Identify the Winners
Identify sectors and assets poised to outperform as rates fall and global growth slows.
Reinvest Today
Invest today to capture higher yields, lower multiples and higher total returns.
Grow for the Long-Term
Strategic reinvestment today can reduce risk and improve your clients’ long-term, risk-adjusted total returns.

If not GICs, short-term bonds, and high interest savings accounts (HISAs), then what?

Here is a look at how different equity sectors have historically performed when interest rates are falling.
Sector
Example
Performance
Performance with Lower Interest Rates
Communication Services
Cell phone provider, Cable company, Internet service provider, Social media platform, Streaming service

Meta Platforms (META), Walt Disney (DIS), Verizon (VZ)
Neutral
Declining rates can spur capital expenditures but lower growth impacts the ability to grow revenues in the short term.
Consumer Discretionary
Online retailer, Automaker, Athletic apparel company, Home improvement store, Entertainment company

Amazon (AMZN), Tesla (TSLA), McDonald’s (MCD)
Underperform
Slowing growth puts downward pressure on discretionary spending.
Consumer Staples
Food manufacturer, Beverage company, Household products company, Personal care products company, Grocery store chain

Procter & Gamble (PG), Walmart (WMT), Coca-Cola (KO)
Outperform
Resilient demand supports revenues as global growth slows.
Energy
Oil & gas company, Refining company, Pipeline company

Exxon Mobil (XOM), Schlumberger (SLB)
Neutral
Slowing growth reduces demand which puts downward pressure on prices.
Financials
Bank, Insurance company, Investment bank

JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B), Visa (V)
Neutral
Rising provisions puts downward pressure on earnings while slowing growth impacts lending.
Healthcare
Pharmaceutical company, Medical device company, Healthcare provider, Health insurer, Pharmacy chain

UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Medtronic (MDT)
Outperform
Very resilient demand and revenues supports continued growth even as global growth slows.
Industrials
Aerospace company, Construction equipment manufacturer, Chemical company

Boeing (BA), Caterpillar (CAT), Union Pacific (UNP)
Neutral
The most diversified sub- sector will see results across the spectrum.
Information Technology (IT)
Computer hardware company, Software company, Internet company

Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA)
Neutral
Resilient demand however, capital expenditures may decline in a period of slowing growth.
Materials
Chemical company, Metals producer, Paper company

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Dow (DOW), International Paper (IP)
Underperform
Highly cyclical sector tends to lag when global growth slows.
Real Estate
Real estate investment trust (REIT), Cell tower operator, Data centre operator

American Tower (AMT), Prologis (PLD), Simon Property Group (SPG))
Outperform
Contractual revenues and essential services provide resilient revenues and cash flows.
Utilities
Electric utilities, Water utilities

NextEra Energy (NEE), Duke Energy (DUK), Southern Company (SO)
Outperform
Contractual revenues and essential services provide resilient revenues and cash flows.

Starlight Capital Mutual Funds

Real estate, infrastructure, and dividend growth stocks have historically outperformed post rate-hike cycles. All three can provide investors with tax-efficient, rising cash flow streams at a time when yields from GICs, short term bonds and HISAs are declining.
Real Estate
Real estate is currently trading at large discounts to NAV and with the conclusion of the rate hike cycle, stand to benefit from multiple expansion.

Why Invest in the Fund now?
  • Equity-like returns, bond-like income
  • Tax-efficient monthly distribution
  • Tap into structural tailwinds like the housing shortage, global trade, and digital real estate
 Real Estate Outperformance After Rate Hike Cycles
Image
Source: Cohen & Steers calculations, Bloomberg, and Federal Reserve. As of August 31, 2022.
Infrastructure
Infrastructure has sold off as rates have risen and with the conclusion of the rate hike cycle, stand to benefit from multiple expansion.

Why Invest in the Fund now?
  • Equity-like returns, bond-like income
  • Tax-efficient monthly distribution
  • Tap into structural tailwinds like decarbonization, infrastructure renewal, and digital connectivity
 Infrastructure Outperformance After Rate Hike Cycles
Image
Source: Cohen & Steers calculations, Bloomberg, and Federal Reserve. As of August 31, 2022.
Dividend Growth Stocks
Dividend growers have historically outperformed after Federal Reserve (“Fed”) rate hike cycles.

Why Invest in the Fund now?
  • Equity-like returns, bond-like income
  • Monthly distribution
  • The Starlight Dividend Growth Class is a concentrated portfolio of high-quality, dividend growing companies, targeting 10%+ annual dividend growth, which we expect to generate superior, risk-adjusted long-term total returns
Dividend Growers After FOMC Rate Hike Cycles
Subsets of S&P 500, All Rate Hikes Since 1972
Image
Source: Ned Davis Research, Inc Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Data shown is based on the average 36 month performance after all rate hikes since 1972 which occurred on the following dates: 1/15/73, 8/31/77, 8/31/80, 9/4/87, 2/4/94, 6/30/99, 6/30/04, 12/16/15.
We invite you to partner with us.


Starlight Capital
Starlight Global Real Estate Fund
Series F: SLC201
Series ETF: SCGR
  • Monthly Income
  • Tax-Efficient Distribution
  • Actively Managed Total Return Fund
Starlight Global Infrastructure Fund
Series F: SLC202
Series ETF: SCGI
  • Monthly Income
  • Tax-Efficient Distribution
  • Actively Managed Total Return Fund
Starlight Dividend Growth Class
Series F: SLC517
  • Monthly Income
  • Target 10%+ Annual Dividend Growth
  • Actively Managed Total Return Fund
Important disclaimer.


This article is intended to provide general insights about potential impacts of lower interest rates on various sectors. It is not a substitute for individualized investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results, and investment performance can vary within a given sector and industry.

The views in this update are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and are current as of July 24, 2024. While all material is deemed to be reliable, accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed.

Certain statements in this document are forward-looking. Forward-looking statements (“FLS”) are statements that are predictive in nature, depend upon or refer to future events or conditions, or that include words such as “may,” “will,” “should,” “could,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “plan,” “believe,” or “estimate,” or other similar expressions. Statements that look forward in time or include anything other than historical information are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results, actions or events could differ materially from those set forth in the FLS. FLS are not guarantees of future performance and are by their nature based on numerous assumptions. Although the FLS contained herein are based upon what Starlight Capital and the portfolio manager believe to be reasonable assumptions, neither Starlight Capital nor the portfolio manager can assure that actual results will be consistent with these FLS. The reader is cautioned to consider the FLS carefully and not to place undue reliance on FLS. Unless required by applicable law, it is not undertaken, and specifically disclaimed that there is any intention or obligation to update or revise FLS, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with investment funds. Please read the prospectus before investing. Investment funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated.

The content of this document (including facts, views, opinions, recommendations, descriptions of or references to, products or securities) is not to be used or construed as investment advice, as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, or an endorsement, recommendation or sponsorship of any entity or security cited. Although we endeavour to ensure its accuracy and completeness, we assume no responsibility for any reliance upon it. Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the offering documents before investing. Investors should consult with their advisors prior to investing.
© Copyright 2024 Starlight Investments Capital LP. All Rights Reserved.

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