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Week in Review

Review of the Week

Jun 10, 2024
The year of the election heats up

THE YEAR OF THE ELECTION IS ALREADY PROVIDING WARNING SIGNS TO EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED. EVEN WHEN OUTCOMES AREN’T A HUGE SURPRISE, PAINFUL (IF TEMPORARY) PITFALLS MAY LIE AHEAD).

Mar 18, 2024
Land of the rising prices

IN A WAVE OF CENTRAL BANK MEETINGS THIS WEEK, ONE OF THEM IS TRULY DIFFERENT. WHILE ALL OTHER DEVELOPED WORLD POLICYMAKERS ARE PONDERING RATE CUTS, ONLY JAPAN IS CONSIDERING RATE HIKES.

Jan 15, 2024
Gimme shelter

HOUSING COSTS MAKE UP A BIG PART OF PEOPLE’S SPENDING, YET THEY CAN OFTEN OBSCURE WHAT’S GOING ON WITH INFLATION. 

Jan 22, 2024
Shoppers on strike?

UK RETAIL SALES SLUMPED IN DECEMBER WHILE INFLATION WENT IN THE OTHER DIRECTION. IS THE UK NOW IN RECESSION, ALBEIT THE MILDEST OF THE MILD?

Jan 29, 2024
The oracle of threadneedle street

NO CHANGE TO MONETARY POLICY IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK, BUT INVESTORS WILL BE EAGER FOR ANY CLUE ABOUT THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S THOUGHTS ON INFLATION AND INTEREST RATE CUTS. 

Feb 05, 2024
Don't tread on me

US JOBS STRENGTH PUSHES BACK INTEREST RATE CUT FORECASTS YET FURTHER. MEANWHILE, HIGHER RATES AND CHANGING BUSINESS NEEDS KEEPS SQUEEZING COMMERCIAL PROPERTY.

Feb 12, 2024
American stocks pop

THE US S&P 500 STOCK MARKET INDEX BROKE THROUGH 5,000 FOR THE FIRST TIME, HITTING A RECORD HIGH LAST WEEK AS INVESTORS SHRUGGED OFF WORRIES THAT INTEREST RATES MAY NOT FALL AS FAST AS MANY HAD HOPED.

Feb 19, 2024
Downcast, but out (spending)

THE UK SLUMPS INTO RECESSION EVEN AS PEOPLE’S SPIRITS AND RETAIL SALES RISE. MEANWHILE, TROUBLE MAY BE BREWING IN AMERICAN INFLATION.

Feb 26, 2024
Planning to fail

OBSTRUCTIVE PLANNING LAWS ARE CURTAILING THE SUPPLY OF HOMES IN THE UK, THE REGULATOR SAYS. MEANWHILE, THE QUALITY OF BUILDING IS SLIPPING, SUGGESTING WE’RE WRAPPED UP IN THE WRONG RED TAPE.

Mar 04, 2024
Tax cuts or a conservative budget?

THE CHANCELLOR HOPES TO NARROW LABOUR’S YAWNING LEAD IN OPINION POLLS WITH A TAX-CUTTING BUDGET. GIVEAWAYS MAY BE STYMIED  BY A POOR ECONOMY AND HIGHER COSTS OF PUBLIC SERVICES.

Mar 11, 2024
Hazy data

PROBLEMS WITH UK LABOUR SURVEYS ARE MAKING IT HARD TO KNOW THE TRUE RATE OF UNEMPLOYMENT. MEANWHILE, THE CHANCELLOR RELEASES A TAX-CUTTING BUDGET THAT LEAVES THE NEXT GOVERNMENT WITH TOUGH CHOICES.

Mar 25, 2024
Downward bound

AFTER THE FLURRY OF CENTRAL BANK DECISIONS LAST WEEK, WHAT DID WE LEARN ABOUT WHEN (AND HOW MUCH) THE BIG HITTERS PLAN TO CUT RATES?

Jun 03, 2024
The pathetic fallacy

UNCOMFORTABLE WEATHER HANGS OVER THE UK AND ITS MARKETS AS EVERYONE WAITS FOR A SIGN OF SUMMER.

Apr 02, 2024
This rally is broadening...

A RESILIENT ECONOMY IS GIVING INVESTORS INCREASED CONFIDENCE TO MOVE BEYOND THE MAGNIFICENT SEVEN AND INTO CORNERS OF THE MARKET THAT HAVE LAGGED. THIS BROADENING TREND IS VERY ENCOURAGING.

Apr 08, 2024
Is the door slamming on early rate cuts?

A BLOWOUT JOBS REPORT IS TIPPING BETS TOWARDS FEWER US INTEREST RATE CUTS THIS YEAR. WHAT HAPPENS IF INFLATION CONTINUES TO BOUNCE HIGHER THIS WEEK?

Apr 15, 2024
Middle-eastern tensions rise further

AN IRANIAN MISSILE ATTACK ON ISRAEL WAS THWARTED OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE MARKETS ARE CALM, RISKS OF ESCALATION LINGER.

Apr 22, 2024
Spending the big bucks

THE MEAN-AVERAGE AMERICAN FAMILY IS WORTH $1 MILLION AFTER YEARS OF SOARING GROWTH, WEALTH AND INCOME. THIS MATTERS FOR INFLATION, FUTURE INTEREST RATES AND THE STRENGTH OF THE DOLLAR.

Apr 29, 2024
Taking stock of gdp

THE GREAT UNCERTAINTY OVER WHETHER AND WHEN US INTEREST RATES WILL FALL TOOK A TWIST WITH FIRST-QUARTER GDP. MUCH SLOWER GROWTH, OFFSETTING DYNAMICS AND HIGHER INFLATION ARE CREATING A PUZZLE.

May 07, 2024
The federal reserve riddle

FADING STRENGTH IN THE LABOUR MARKET AND SERVICES BUSINESSES HAVE INCREASED HOPES THAT INTEREST RATES CAN STILL BE CUT THIS YEAR. EVERYBODY IS WATCHING THE FED WATCH THE DATA.

May 13, 2024
The cycle of hope

A RUN OF WEAKER DATA IS REKINDLING EXPECTATIONS OF US INTEREST RATE CUTS. THEY’RE MORE LIKELY TO ARRIVE ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC, YET EVEN THERE RISKS OF OVEROPTIMISM REMAIN.

May 20, 2024
Divergence emerges

US ECONOMIC DATA IS SOFTENING, YET THERE SEEMS A WAY TO GO BEFORE INTEREST RATES START TO FALL. ON THIS SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC IT’S THE COMPLETE OPPOSITE.

May 28, 2024
Snap election, new policies

WITH THE UK HEADING TO THE POLLS SOONER THAN EXPECTED, THE GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCES POLICIES THAT RESONATE WITH OLDER VOTERS. MEANWHILE, DISAPPOINTING INFLATION MAY HAVE KIBOSHED A SUMMER RATE CUT.

Jan 08, 2024
An old-fashioned santa rally

A GRUELLING YEAR FOR INVESTORS ACTUALLY DELIVERED DECENT RETURNS. BUT HOW MUCH OF THAT STRONG PERFORMANCE IS IN ANTICIPATION OF 2024?

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