THE UK ECONOMY HIT THE WALL LAST QUARTER, WHILE INFLATION STARTED RISING AGAIN. IN THE US, EXPECTATIONS OF INTEREST RATE CUTS HAVE COOLED SINCE DONALD TRUMP WAS ELECTED PRESIDENT.

EQUITY AND BOND INVESTORS HAD OPPOSITE REACTIONS TO THE US ELECTION. BUT TRUMP 2.0 MAY HAVE LESS INFLUENCE THAN INVESTORS FIRST HOPED OR FEARED.

IT’S NECK AND NECK AGAIN ON THE EVE OF THE US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE DONALD TRUMP’S SIGNIFICANT LEAD IN BETTING-ODDS FORECASTS HAS DISAPPEARED OVER THE PAST WEEK. ACCORDING TO PREDICTIT, THERE WAS A 60% PROBABILITY OF A TRUMP WIN ON 27 OCTOBER. NOW, IT’S 49.5%.

LABOUR WILL DELIVER ITS FIRST BUDGET IN ALMOST 15 YEARS THIS WEEK. WITH LITTLE WIGGLE ROOM AND A SHOPPING LIST OF PROBLEMS, IT WILL BE HARD FOR THE CHANCELLOR TO PLEASE ANYONE.

A BIG SHIFT IN CONFIDENCE THAT UK INTEREST RATES WILL KEEP FALLING APACE INTO THE END OF THE YEAR SENT BRITISH GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS SHARPLY LOWER LAST WEEK. THE 10-YEAR GILT YIELD FELL FROM 4.21% TO 4.06% AFTER INFLATION PLUMMETED FROM 2.2% TO 1.7%.

THE TWIN ENGINES OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMY, GERMANY AND FRANCE, ARE SPUTTERING. WITH INFLATION FALLING AND FRANCE TURNING TO AUSTERITY, WILL THE CENTRAL BANK COME TO THE RESCUE?

AMERICA’S FADING JOBS MARKET REVERSED COURSE LAST MONTH, WITH A SURGE OF NEW JOBS CREATED. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE PATH OF INTEREST RATES?

THE YEAR OF THE DRAGON HASN’T BEEN AN AUSPICIOUS ONE FOR CHINA SO FAR. ITS LEADERS ARE TRYING TO TURN THAT AROUND WITH A WALL OF MONEY TO KICKSTART ITS SPUTTERING ECONOMY. 

INTEREST RATES HAVE FINALLY DROPPED IN THE US AFTER A DOUBLE-BARRELLED CUT. BUT WILL THEY FALL AS FAST FROM HERE AS INVESTORS EXPECT? 

THE WAIT FOR US INTEREST RATE CUTS IS OVER. EVERYONE EXPECTS THE US FEDERAL RESERVE TO MOVE THIS WEEK, THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR WILL IT GO?

STOCKS ARE DOWN ON UNDERWHELMING US ECONOMIC NUMBERS, BUT THE CENTRAL BANK IS LIKELY TO RIDE TO THE RESCUE.

MARKETS STARTED WILD AS RECESSION FEARS ROSE, YET BECAME MORE ORDERLY AS LAST WEEK PROGRESSED. WILL THE CALM REMAIN?

STOCK MARKETS AROUND THE WORLD ARE BEING ROCKED AS INVESTORS TAKE FRIGHT ABOUT WHETHER AMERICA IS HEADED FOR RECESSION IN THE COMING MONTHS. YET WHY IS JAPAN THE EPICENTRE?

AFTER MONTHS OF WAITING, THERE’S A STRONG CHANCE THAT INTEREST RATES MAY FALL IN THE UK THIS WEEK. ACROSS THE ATLANTIC, THE LONGED-FOR CUTS WON’T BE TILL THE AUTUMN, IF MARKETS ARE CORRECT.

AFTER WEEKS OF PRESSURE, PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN HAS ABANDONED HIS BID FOR RE-ELECTION. WILL THERE BE A BATTLE FOR THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION AT NEXT MONTH’S PARTY CONVENTION IN CHICAGO, OR WILL HIS SUCCESSOR BE CORONATED QUICKLY?

POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN THE US IS OVERSHADOWING LAST WEEK’S BIG MOVES IN THE BIGGEST US STOCKS, AND WIDESPREAD GAINS FOR SMALLER STOCKS TOO.

SOMETIMES POLLS ARE RIGHT AND SOMETIMES POLLS ARE WRONG. LAST WEEK, WE SAW CLASSIC EXAMPLES OF BOTH.

THE RIGHT-WING RASSEMBLEMENT NATIONAL WAS THE BIG WINNER IN THE FIRST ROUND OF FRENCH ELECTIONS, BUT THE MOST CONCLUSIVE VOTE COMES THIS WEEKEND. BEFORE THEN, THE UK VOTES ON ITS OWN PARLIAMENT.

FRANCE GOES TO THE POLLS FOR THE FIRST ROUND OF VOTING, THE TWO CANDIDATES FOR THE WHITE HOUSE SPAR AND THE EURO KNOCKOUT PHASE BEGINS.

THE US FEDERAL RESERVE ROWS BACK ON POTENTIAL FOR INTEREST RATE CUTS EVEN AS INFLATION IMPROVES. MEANWHILE, THE FRENCH ELECTION ALSO REVERBERATES THROUGH BOND MARKETS.

THE YEAR OF THE ELECTION IS ALREADY PROVIDING WARNING SIGNS TO EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED. EVEN WHEN OUTCOMES AREN’T A HUGE SURPRISE, PAINFUL (IF TEMPORARY) PITFALLS MAY LIE AHEAD).

UNCOMFORTABLE WEATHER HANGS OVER THE UK AND ITS MARKETS AS EVERYONE WAITS FOR A SIGN OF SUMMER.

WITH THE UK HEADING TO THE POLLS SOONER THAN EXPECTED, THE GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCES POLICIES THAT RESONATE WITH OLDER VOTERS. MEANWHILE, DISAPPOINTING INFLATION MAY HAVE KIBOSHED A SUMMER RATE CUT.

US ECONOMIC DATA IS SOFTENING, YET THERE SEEMS A WAY TO GO BEFORE INTEREST RATES START TO FALL. ON THIS SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC IT’S THE COMPLETE OPPOSITE.

A RUN OF WEAKER DATA IS REKINDLING EXPECTATIONS OF US INTEREST RATE CUTS. THEY’RE MORE LIKELY TO ARRIVE ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC, YET EVEN THERE RISKS OF OVEROPTIMISM REMAIN.

FADING STRENGTH IN THE LABOUR MARKET AND SERVICES BUSINESSES HAVE INCREASED HOPES THAT INTEREST RATES CAN STILL BE CUT THIS YEAR. EVERYBODY IS WATCHING THE FED WATCH THE DATA.

THE GREAT UNCERTAINTY OVER WHETHER AND WHEN US INTEREST RATES WILL FALL TOOK A TWIST WITH FIRST-QUARTER GDP. MUCH SLOWER GROWTH, OFFSETTING DYNAMICS AND HIGHER INFLATION ARE CREATING A PUZZLE.

THE MEAN-AVERAGE AMERICAN FAMILY IS WORTH $1 MILLION AFTER YEARS OF SOARING GROWTH, WEALTH AND INCOME. THIS MATTERS FOR INFLATION, FUTURE INTEREST RATES AND THE STRENGTH OF THE DOLLAR.

AN IRANIAN MISSILE ATTACK ON ISRAEL WAS THWARTED OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE MARKETS ARE CALM, RISKS OF ESCALATION LINGER.

A BLOWOUT JOBS REPORT IS TIPPING BETS TOWARDS FEWER US INTEREST RATE CUTS THIS YEAR. WHAT HAPPENS IF INFLATION CONTINUES TO BOUNCE HIGHER THIS WEEK?

A RESILIENT ECONOMY IS GIVING INVESTORS INCREASED CONFIDENCE TO MOVE BEYOND THE MAGNIFICENT SEVEN AND INTO CORNERS OF THE MARKET THAT HAVE LAGGED. THIS BROADENING TREND IS VERY ENCOURAGING.

AFTER THE FLURRY OF CENTRAL BANK DECISIONS LAST WEEK, WHAT DID WE LEARN ABOUT WHEN (AND HOW MUCH) THE BIG HITTERS PLAN TO CUT RATES?

IN A WAVE OF CENTRAL BANK MEETINGS THIS WEEK, ONE OF THEM IS TRULY DIFFERENT. WHILE ALL OTHER DEVELOPED WORLD POLICYMAKERS ARE PONDERING RATE CUTS, ONLY JAPAN IS CONSIDERING RATE HIKES.

PROBLEMS WITH UK LABOUR SURVEYS ARE MAKING IT HARD TO KNOW THE TRUE RATE OF UNEMPLOYMENT. MEANWHILE, THE CHANCELLOR RELEASES A TAX-CUTTING BUDGET THAT LEAVES THE NEXT GOVERNMENT WITH TOUGH CHOICES.

THE CHANCELLOR HOPES TO NARROW LABOUR’S YAWNING LEAD IN OPINION POLLS WITH A TAX-CUTTING BUDGET. GIVEAWAYS MAY BE STYMIED  BY A POOR ECONOMY AND HIGHER COSTS OF PUBLIC SERVICES.

OBSTRUCTIVE PLANNING LAWS ARE CURTAILING THE SUPPLY OF HOMES IN THE UK, THE REGULATOR SAYS. MEANWHILE, THE QUALITY OF BUILDING IS SLIPPING, SUGGESTING WE’RE WRAPPED UP IN THE WRONG RED TAPE.

THE UK SLUMPS INTO RECESSION EVEN AS PEOPLE’S SPIRITS AND RETAIL SALES RISE. MEANWHILE, TROUBLE MAY BE BREWING IN AMERICAN INFLATION.

THE US S&P 500 STOCK MARKET INDEX BROKE THROUGH 5,000 FOR THE FIRST TIME, HITTING A RECORD HIGH LAST WEEK AS INVESTORS SHRUGGED OFF WORRIES THAT INTEREST RATES MAY NOT FALL AS FAST AS MANY HAD HOPED.

US JOBS STRENGTH PUSHES BACK INTEREST RATE CUT FORECASTS YET FURTHER. MEANWHILE, HIGHER RATES AND CHANGING BUSINESS NEEDS KEEPS SQUEEZING COMMERCIAL PROPERTY.

NO CHANGE TO MONETARY POLICY IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK, BUT INVESTORS WILL BE EAGER FOR ANY CLUE ABOUT THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S THOUGHTS ON INFLATION AND INTEREST RATE CUTS. 

UK RETAIL SALES SLUMPED IN DECEMBER WHILE INFLATION WENT IN THE OTHER DIRECTION. IS THE UK NOW IN RECESSION, ALBEIT THE MILDEST OF THE MILD?

HOUSING COSTS MAKE UP A BIG PART OF PEOPLE’S SPENDING, YET THEY CAN OFTEN OBSCURE WHAT’S GOING ON WITH INFLATION. 

A GRUELLING YEAR FOR INVESTORS ACTUALLY DELIVERED DECENT RETURNS. BUT HOW MUCH OF THAT STRONG PERFORMANCE IS IN ANTICIPATION OF 2024?